Auction market

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mwood

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I don't usually have much of an opinion on Tiger values, but notice this board pays close attention to auction results. Watching some of the Mecum Harrisburg on dvr last night, I'm going to go out on a limb: The collector car market is beginning to soften and the big gains seen over the last two years are over, for now :)

Seriously, the number of "no sales", the prices on many (what appeared to be) quality cars...if this auction was any kind of indication, the market has already started to correct.

The "tell" will be Monterey later this month. My guess is the quality/high end stuff doesn't set any records, but sales happen, and the mid/lower end market has what will look like disappointing results.

If good Tigers hold somewhere in the range established over the last 12 months, I think it will be a significant milestone, in terms of where our cars fit in the broader collector marketplace.

On the other hand...what the heck do I know? :D
 
The way I see it its about sustainability, what is driving the prices?

In the late 80's the classic car bubble was speculation, values were going up as cars were flipped between people with no interest in them other than an asset appreciation. When the crash came the value went back to what those who like the cars and wanted to own them could/ would pay for them.

The rise in values of 50's- early 70's cars from 2000's till a few years back was driven by people who wanted to own them and the increasing amount of events and classic car culture like goodwood festival of speed/ revival, Monterey historic, Phillip island classic etc... And all the USA/ UK / European touring events. The cars were not only desirable but there were more high profile events to use them.

This then lead to exclusivity in invites and what was eligible etc... And prices started to appreciate more... Then the cars became status between wealthier people with an interest in them... People paying drivers andcteans to run historic racers to win for prestige, competition of status to win concourse events etc... Market and events became more professional .. Prices keep rising.

Where it has changed in last few years is that with global financial issues people outside the hobby have looked at the steady increasing value of the cars and bought in ... The difference being they are not as interested in owning as holding for a few years then flipping... Sort of like speculation in art... Also why paperwork has become increasingly important.

At some point it will correct... The value in the cars is in the ones who love them... When the market crashes etc... We still want to buy/ restore/ drive them. So supply and demand in enthusiasts is where the true value is and where the baseline settles when markets and speculation subsides.
 
When describing full market cycles, I agree with a lot of what you're saying.

I'm thinking more in terms of a short term effect, where prices being bid up gains momentum and then hits a point where there's not enough new players entering the game to sustain...at which point you have some form of correction, as those that were supporting the bid become the offer (I work in the largest auction market in the world...equities and debt instruments LOL). I think we may be close to that point, with dealers and investors (or speculators) holding too much inventory? I don't really know, it just is starting to feel that way to me.

Agree that the last couple of years have also been supported by non-enthusiasts looking for hard asset hedges against the inevitable day when interest rates begin to go back up in a significant way and inflation enters the picture.
 
I had a dream last night where I was looking at my car's fenders and the bodywork was horrible, not so much painted metal but cake frosting applied by someone with the DT's. My concern in the dream was the diminished value of the car...

I have to stop reading all these topics about Tiger values!:O
 
auction results

All this being said, it takes just two people, either on the phone, bidding on line or in the room from anywhere in the world to make the selling price plus commission. A high profile auction like Monterey could very well see a new bench mark in prices as well healed collectors/investors still want to park there money. Some cars like hemi cuda's have come back down to earth, still other cars have yet to have there day. From what I have read from many varied reports that our cars have been under valued and forgotten given low production numbers. Sure they have been in magazines for years but only in the last eight years or so have began to climb the ladder so to speak. How many of you have experienced all age groups coming up to you and asking you what kind of car is this, or who made this? When a car is unusual and has an interesting history it more often than not gets peoples attention. The white mkll at Monterey is a beautiful car, I believe will generate interest from the deep pocket crowd at this particular venue. There is one thing about putting a car in an auction, but another having it with similar cars at a high end event.
Just my 2cents
Brian
 
I should have said that if (big "if") the collector car market is starting to soften, not all cars will pull back at the same rate and some may not come down at all. Just like any market, there are different levels of "relative strength". As pointed out, the muscle cars seem to be coming back to earth. I'm wondering if it is a "leading indicator" of a larger correction :)
 
I think another factor is who has the money? When I first started watching auctions it was 30 years ago and the type of person that had the money to spend was an older person that grew up with the cars of the 30's but could never afford them - now they could. As time goes on the average age of the purchaser has also moved along, so the cars they grew up with has also moved along through the decades. Right now the average aged auction buyer is probably in their 50's and 60's so they grew up with the cars from the 60's and maybe even early 70's so these appeal to "us". I think in time the muscle cars will fall in value like the earlier cars have and move to who knows where? Fox body Mustangs, Trans Ams, etc.... Just my .02.
 
Agree with Cobrakidz - my own opinion and it doesn't mean much; a lot of people really want "real cars" and the relationship to Shelby and the Cobra being $1,000,000plus one could buy a real Tiger for less the 10% and not a clone Cobra. Again just my opinion.
 
Monterey results seem to indicate that the market (not just Tigers, but broader) is indeed flattening out. Total sell through was down, even with higher average reserves, and lots of good car went unsold.

Tigers were also arguably soft...Bo's MkII went for about 30% less than the two MkII's sold last year. (maybe not an entirely fair comparison as last year the 50th anniversary stuff definitely had to have created more buzz for our cars)

I'm not suggesting the sky is falling, particularly as it relates to Tiger prices, but it does seem the collector car market may have lost momentum. Which makes sense, the last 24 months have been very "frothy". :)
 
I attended a couple auctions in Monterey and ended up at Russo and Steele Saturday night....I was amazed at how many cars in the lot were "still available" and did not meet reserve. I would safely say 50%+ did not sell, so either sellers are dreaming with their reserve or the buyers are starting to watch their money a little closer. Either way it was a lot of fun for a "watcher" like me.
 
The total auction sales from this year came to $390 million compared to $420.6 for last year. Last years auctions had a record breaking $38 million dollar sale of a 1962 Ferrari GTO and this years top sale was just $17.6 million for a Ferrari LM Coupe. So all in all the market is still as hot as last year. I took in the previews for all auctions as I did last year and in my opinion this years crop was not up to par. The white MKII clearly was not as nice as last years RED MKII that sold for $225k and the rest of the Tiger offerings were just hohum in the Tiger field. Russo steel had a ton of junk which is why it didn't sell here.

Moondoggie
 
The red mkii last year was a very nice looking car from the pictures, but the green one that sold for the same $ didn't seem as good. The white one looked a match at least for that car. Also consider the beautiful fresh restored euro red spec mkii that went recently for same sort of $. I think mid 100's is good money for the mkii...

All that said I think Monterey brings the highest prices for each year and are generally above what the cars bring in the normal market place. I still stand by what I said last year, the prices were an anomaly, spike due to other cars around them at the auction going very high, tiger 50th hype and a bunch running as special invites at the reunion.... Perfect storm for record prices.. Reality always cones into play eventually.. Steady appreciation is a better thing for the cats anyway.
 
Not For Naught

Opinion: Certain cars, for a myriad of reasons, will draw auction dollars every time they show up. The exotics, for example, that are found on private display pedestals will always draw huge lottery fortunes. I think that the market showed a number of people who flat out decided to stop waiting and finally buy/own something on their life long wish list. This created the "peak" that got attention and, in turn, brought more diners to the table. Not enough to unbalance the numbers, but a healthy surge just the same. We're now back to normal; if there is such a thing as normal.
My personal attraction is to unrestored but well maintained & "preserved" pieces. Which is why she won't ever let me travel with money . . . . . .
 
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